Protocol for re-opening New Zealand society
Updated: Oct 23, 2021
Plan B's Protocol for re-opening New Zealand society
Gary: The independent Plan B experts have been busy! I am reproducing their brand new, updated plan for reopening New Zealand. This is great stuff and makes the Government's plan look more than ever like the emperor's fine but invisible clothing. We can and must do better.
This new Plan is a great start, pass it onto other people far: make it go viral, turn this into a super-spreader event. But guess what: I can do even better: yes, we can always do better. I'm working on it!
Introduction 18 months on from the world’s fearful response to the arrival of SARS-CoV-2, we provide an alternative to New Zealand’s elimination strategy to one of ‘living with covid-19’. We are now back in level four lockdown indefinitely with escalating PCR positive ‘cases’. We urgently need to reassess New Zealand’s elimination strategy and whether it makes sense given the new information.
The revised strategy takes account of five major developments over the period:
The infection is far less threatening than originally forecast by authorities, including New Zealand, when they proposed lockdowns and other restrictions. Data from the WHO, CDC and other peer-reviewed studies show the median infection fatality ratio (IFR) is ~0.23%, not the projected 3.6%. The condition is therefore more akin to pandemics in 1957 and 1967 than influenza in 1918. Asymptomatic individuals do not spread the infection, removing the key idea underpinning lockdowns. Long-term health effects (“long covid”) have not proven any different to or more prevalent that those experienced in the recovery period from existing circulating pathogens.
Questions still remain about the accuracy of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test used to diagnose ‘covid-19 cases’. The virus remains yet to be isolated, the sequence of the virus was generated in silico (stitched together from computer databases) and many people who test positive are asymptomatic. In addition, the clinical symptoms associated with covid-19 are not unique.
It is clear that the average age of death with covid-19 is about the same as our life expectancy (~82 years). Older people are much more likely to die of covid than younger ones.
Very rapid development of vaccines and dissemination of these in New Zealand. The vaccines show some evidence of reducing PCR positive cases, but not of prolonging overall survival or reducing transmission. In many countries now with highly vaccinated populations, there are increasing numbers of breakthrough cases. It is now obvious that vaccines will not stop the spread of the condition long term. In addition, clear evidence shows a major increase in post-vaccination deaths and serious injuries.
Early treatment protocols are showing promise in the early treatment of cases otherwise destined to be hospitalised.
New Zealand’s very low incidence of covid-19, with the apparent absence of community transmission for many months, whereas covid-19 cases occur freely throughout the rest of the world. Now, we are faced with yet another lockdown and an increase in case numbers.
The vaunted elimination objective makes re-engagement impossible without an improved vaccine administered as often as necessary to most of the population. New Zealand cannot sustain economically or socially the years of border closure, threat of lockdowns, social disruption and government debt, needed to reach this position, if it can be reached at all. We believe, frankly, this to be a utopian pipe dream, but necessitating dystopian government dictates. The fabric of our society will be rent – then restitched to what? We propose an approach that slowly and carefully manages our entry back into a world where covid-19 exists, and where it can exist in New Zealand without causing unacceptable harm.
Guiding Principles The risks of mortality following covid-19 infection have been grossly exaggerated. As observed in other pandemics, a high degree of ascertainment bias has occurred that has further exaggerated the importance of this condition in the minds of scientists, decision makers and politicians. This has led to an over prioritisation of the illness above many other health issues. In turn, this exaggerated threat has led to mortality and morbidity from other diseases due to the imposition of lockdowns and disruption of usual medical care. The economic effects of lockdowns and border closures, leading to unemployment and poverty will lead to further health deterioration that is out of proportion to the threat of covid-19. Consistent evidence also highlights that lockdowns do not limit the spread of infection. Now, it is important to note that hospital treatment for covid-19 patients has improved considerably during the course of the pandemic and that hospital mortality has declined. Potential treatments are also available to reduce morbidity and mortality include the use of both the micronutrient vitamin D and anti-parasitic and anti-viral drug ivermectin. It is also clear that metabolic disease is an important contributor to death with covid-19, and it also raises risk of death from other diseases. Addressing dietary risks related to metabolic disease is also worthwhile to reduce potential harm from covid-19, such as reducing sugar intake. These guidelines were inspired from those produced by the group who published pandata.org.
Ongoing pursuit of elimination is risky New Zealand is the only country in the world now continuing to attempt to eliminate cases. Many countries that were attempting to eliminate covid-19 have now given up, such as Singapore, UK and Australia. It is a dead-end strategy which will leave New Zealand isolated and vulnerable, in a (possibly) covid-free bubble. Even if elimination is possible and the reward warrants the financial and social cost, cases will still exist throughout the rest of the world – endemic for the foreseeable future (hundreds of years). To keep it out, New Zealand will need to retain covid-19 border testing indefinitely. Similarly, lockdowns and tracing and testing have no time limit.