New Zealand’s Fuel-Security Crisis
- Gary Moller
- 15 minutes ago
- 5 min read
A Nation One Tanker Away from Trouble
New Zealand today is more exposed and vulnerable than at any other time in our modern history. We have built a country that runs almost entirely on imported fuel, shipped through the most unstable waterways in the world, from regions over which we have no influence and no control.
It takes only one disruption – one crisis – and the entire system stops.
Food stops.Transport stops.Emergency services falter.Cities empty and panic sets in.
This is not alarmism. It’s simply the truth no one in government seems willing to say out loud.
And it is a vulnerability we created ourselves.
Read these articles then come back here to read what I have written:
The Marsden Point disaster: We didn’t mothball it — we destroyed it
When Marsden Point refinery closed in 2022, many assumed the facility had simply been “put to sleep” and could be restarted if needed. That narrative was convenient, but false.
Marsden Point was not mothballed. It was decommissioned, stripped and, in the eyes of some experts, effectively vandalised.
Critical equipment was removed. The refinery was carved up and gutted. The plant no longer exists in any operational sense. It is now nothing more than an import terminal.
If New Zealand ever wants a refinery again, it will not be a matter of “turning it back on.”We would need to build a new refinery from scratch, at a cost likely pushing a billion dollars or more, plus years of consenting, engineering and construction.
We have burned the bridge behind us.
We now rely almost 100 percent on foreign refined fuel
With Marsden gone, we import refined petrol, diesel and jet fuel from overseas refineries — primarily Singapore, with additional supply from Korea and Malaysia.
Every litre we consume — and we consume millions per day — must come here by tanker.
This import-only model leaves New Zealand dangerously exposed. If tankers stop, New Zealand stops.
There is no refinery to fall back on.There is no domestic production of refined fuels.There is no redundancy.There is no buffer beyond a few weeks' worth of stored fuel.
In a fragile world, this is insanity.
The choke-point problem: Our lifeline runs through the world’s most unstable waters
Most tankers supplying New Zealand must pass through the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca — the busiest and most strategically sensitive shipping lanes on Earth.
If there were conflict between the United States and China — even a limited confrontation — these routes could be slowed, disrupted or blocked entirely.
And if that happens?
Our tankers don’t arrive.
And without tankers, modern New Zealand collapses in a matter of weeks.
Would our “allies” rescue us? We need to grow up
Here’s a question our leaders never ask:
If a conflict breaks out involving China, do we honestly think our so-called allies will prioritise sending fuel to this tiny, remote country at the bottom of the world?
History says no.Common sense says no.Human nature says no.
In a real crisis:
Countries secure fuel for themselves first
Refiners reserve supply for their own economies
Militaries get priority
Domestic markets outrank trade partners
Supply contracts are ignored
Remote routes are cancelled or considered too risky
We may get nice statements and diplomatic smiles.But you can’t run trucks on promises.
And another awkward fact:
China is our largest trading partner.They buy more of our food than anyone else. They keep our export sector alive.
So why would we blindly “side” with countries that seem increasingly eager to stir up confrontation with the very nation that buys most of what we produce?
Meanwhile, our “dearest friend,” the United States, is slapping tariffs on our goods. They undermine our farmers and exporters, then expect loyalty when tensions rise.
Who needs enemies when we have friends like these?
New Zealand’s future lies in neutrality, self-sufficiency and having good relations with all — not tying ourselves to one superpower’s war games.
How long until the cities starve?
New Zealand’s onshore reserves are measured in weeks, not months.
Here’s the rough truth:
Diesel: roughly 28 days’ cover
Petrol: 10–20 days depending on region
Jet fuel: a few days under high demand
Total liquid-fuel cover (all fuels combined): approx. 40 days in normal conditions
Those numbers crumble quickly in a crisis because:
Panic-buying accelerates depletion
Emergency services require more
Farms and food transport rely almost entirely on diesel
Alternate supply routes are slow or impossible
The government can commandeer fuel
Which brings us to the next point.
Who gets diesel in an emergency? Here’s the ugly truth
Under New Zealand’s emergency legislation, the government can commandeer all diesel nationwide.
And the priority list is crystal clear:
Military (Army, Navy, Air Force)
Police, fire, ambulance, government operations
National infrastructure
Local councils
Only then, if anything is left:
Farmers
Truckers
Freight operators
Food supply chains
The public
In other words:
The people who grow the food and move the food are almost last in line.
So even if New Zealand had diesel sitting in tanks, it may not be available for the activities that actually keep society functioning.
If truckers have no diesel, food does not move.If farmers have no diesel, food is not grown or harvested.If emergency generators have no diesel, hospitals go dark.
Cities like Wellington and Auckland could experience severe food shortages within 1–2 weeks, and outright crisis within 3–6 weeks.
Within 8–12 weeks, without resupply, modern society collapses.
The great irony: New Zealand could be self-sufficient
This is the bitter twist of it all.
New Zealand has significant oil and gas reserves.
We have:
Offshore fields
Onshore deposits
Gas suitable for gas-to-liquids (GTL) production
The engineering talent to operate it
The industry capability to refine it
The geological resources to support long-term production
We could be fuel-independent — or close to it.
Yet we shut down exploration.We shut down our only refinery.We eroded our sovereign capability.And we placed our future in the hands of others.
We did this by choice.
And now we pretend we have no choice.
A Freeranger perspective: Resilience is everything
If fuel stops, society stops.This is why personal resilience, local production, decentralisation, and community strength matter more than ever.
A nation that can’t move its food is a nation that can’t feed its people.
A nation dependent on fragile global shipping is a nation living on borrowed time.
A nation that sides blindly in foreign conflicts is a nation that risks everything for nothing.
New Zealand must rediscover its spine and its independence.
Where to from here?
To rebuild true energy resilience, New Zealand must:
Reestablish a refining capability
Reopen exploration and production
Create fuel reserves measured in months, not weeks
Diversify supply routes
Strengthen local food production
Reduce dependency on vulnerable chokepoints
Focus on neutrality and independence
Prioritise the people who feed and supply the country — farmers and truckers
We could be resilient.We could be self-reliant.We could be safe.
But only if we stop pretending and start acting.
At present, New Zealand remains one tanker — one crisis — away from real trouble.
Reading:
As an aside: I came across this old article: https://www.garymoller.com/post/are-sinister-forces-attempting-to-manipulate-reality
Question: Do you recall any prosecutions and sentencing of any of these provocateurs, especially the car-ramming culprit? If there were none, or quietly done with a minor rap across the knuckles, then what can we make of it? Are we in an ongoing psyops? Just asking.
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