A Civilian Analyses the COVID Statistics
Hi Gary,
I have a problem with the way statisticians are conveying the Covid probabilities to us.
If a vaccine is 90% effective and I work in a supermarket and I am vaccinated, then statistically every 10th positive person that passes me will give me Covid.
That means it’s 100% certain that I will catch Covid from the community as it spreads through the population. Not 10%.
People don't understand this and the statisticians don't explain it to us. If my mask is HN95 that will help.
It’s a numbers game. Eventually, I will get Covid because I serve hundreds of people. It’s a bit like speeding.
There is a small chance that I will get caught each time I speed, but if I always speed it is 100% certain that I will get caught.
In an MTB race, if there is a 2% chance that I will get a puncture, then after 50 races it is statistically expected that I will have 1 puncture.
It’s a numbers game. Eventually, a puncture is 100% certain. So with a 90% vaccine, sooner or later we will all get it unless we never go out. Vaccinated people think they are 90% safe, but that’s bulls hit.
Each time you pass an infected person you are 90% safe, but the 10th person will get you. Over a long period of time of being in the community, we are 0% safe. We are being hoodwinked by the statisticians. They are telling us to get the Booster to make us safe, but it's a numbers game. We have spent $70b so far, but we are losing the battle. Lies, damn lies & statistics.
Marco Renalli
